I’m currently thinking about courtroom strategy for the upcoming trial of the century. If I were just playing it for laughs, I’d pick climate-science assertions by Mann and me from the last 15 years and invite his witnesses to discuss which ones are closer to where the science is today. But the reality is you don’t really need to “predict” terribly much – not if you believe, as I did then and as I do now, in natural climate variablity. Judging from that Science study and other recent papers, natural variability is back in – which means Mann is increasingly out. Because his main contribution to the debate was abolishing the very concept of natural variability:
Mann’s “hockey stick” shows that there was no such thing as “global warming” until the Industrial Revolution took off bigtime. So, in Mann’s science, 100 per cent of “global warming” is anthropogenic. In that case, where did it all go in the 21st century? See Tony Allwright’s graph above: China and India industrialized in double-quick time, and it made no difference. One obvious explanation is that there is a non-anthropogenic element in play, something called “natural climate variability”.
But Mann and the other Warmanos can’t admit to that. Because the important and influential part of Mann’s hockey stick is not the blade (as Steve McIntyre says, very few people dispute that it’s warmer now than 200 years ago) but the shaft. In abolishing the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, Dr Mann wound up abolishing the very concept of “natural climate variability”. To the point where all his rube celebrity pals believe there was a millennium-long stable climate until industrial, consumerist humans came along and broiled the planet.
They believe that because that’s what the hockey stick told them.
Believe and obey.
Jean S writes at Climate Audit:
He was able to replicate (visually perfectly) the smooths of MBH9x thereby showing that the smooths involved padding with the instrumental data. The filter used by UC was the zero-phase Butterworth filter (an IIR filter), which has been Mann’s favourite since at least 2003. However, there was something else that I felt was odd: UC’s emulation required a very long (100 samples or so) additional zero padding. So about two years ago, I decided to take an additional look at the topic with UC.
Indeed, after digitalizing Mann’s smooths we discovered that UC’s emulation was very, very good but not perfect. After a long research, and countless hours of experimenting (I won’t bore you with the details)…
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