From an “unnamed source”;
This is all updated with the latest info on every Dem in the country. For your use on election night. Feel free to distribute if you want. The lines highlighted in yellow are what I affectionately call “angry crackers” districts. In order to identify these I did an eyeball calculation of who is in trouble if you assume that, like Obama, house Dems can expect a drop in support among crackers of around 20%, and around 10% among Hispanics. I did a few QCs on these; if Obama polled over 65 in the district, we assume the crackers are probably too liberal for this theory to apply. If the critter him/herself won by over 30 points, we assume that there’s something about that critter in particular that appeals to the voters of that district (within this I made a subset of exceptions for critters who ran essentially unopposed in 2008). If this eyeball calculation shows a dem in trouble and one or more of the political prediction services are highlighting the Dem to win, I highlighted it. Interesting that two of the districts highlighted by this method (ME-1 and MI-9) have polling coming out right this minute indicating the Dems in trouble.
Obviously, this does not account for very good Dem candidates or very bad R candidates but useful to think about, especially given the unreliability of House polls in general.